For many companies, the second half of the year is the time to review strategies, prioritize budgets, and set the course for the coming years. But what does strategic planning mean when not only are individual conditions changing, but multiple transformations are taking place simultaneously?
Artificial intelligence is transforming processes, products, and skill sets. Decarbonization and new regulatory requirements are influencing investments and business models. Energy prices, trade conflicts, and fragile supply chains are increasing cost pressures. Demographic shifts are intensifying competition for qualified employees. At the same time, customers expect shorter innovation cycles, digital services, and competitive prices—while new competitors are quickly challenging established rules of the game.
The particular challenge lies in this simultaneity. Strategic decisions have an impact for years, while the conditions under which they are made can change within a few months. A plant, a product platform, an acquisition, or the development of new capabilities cannot be adjusted on a day-to-day basis in response to current events. Therefore, those who take only a short-term view lose sight of the long-term direction. On the other hand, those who stubbornly stick to plans once they have been decided risk directing resources toward an outdated future.
We firmly believe that strategic planning becomes all the more important precisely because predictability is declining. The less reliable the forecasts, the greater the need for direction, clear decisions, and an organization that remains capable of taking action. In this environment, strategy must not become an attempt to predict the next five years as accurately as possible.
Rather, a good strategy must combine a stable core with adaptable approaches. The stable core answers the following questions: Where do we want to succeed? What value do we create for which customers? What capabilities set us apart? The portfolio, resource allocation, timing, and specific implementation paths remain adaptable. Equally important is the consistent decision regarding what will no longer be pursued in the future.
The automotive industry as an example—not as a special case
The automotive industry illustrates particularly clearly how quickly strategic assumptions can become outdated: Long-term investments and capacity plans are pitted against short-term shifts in demand, technology, and competition.
The figures illustrate this contradictory trend. Although new passenger car registrations in Germany rose by 5 percent in the first eight months of 2026, the market remained 21 percent below 2019 levels. While production and exports declined, battery-electric vehicles increased by 53 percent. Foreign brands benefited significantly more from this growth than German ones. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers are gaining market share in Europe, while German manufacturers are losing considerable ground in China.
The strategic lesson extends beyond the industry: Market growth does not automatically translate into corporate growth, and technological progress does not guarantee a profitable market position. If key assumptions change, therefore, it is necessary to review not only sales plans but also portfolios, capacities, competencies, and partnerships.
"A robust strategy does not consist of a single vision of the future. It describes a range of possible outcomes, makes the underlying assumptions transparent, and defines how to identify relevant changes. Above all, it links observation with decision-making: What should be accelerated, scaled back, discontinued, or started anew when a particular scenario begins to emerge?"
Strategy means direction—not false precision
Our article “Bringing Strategy to Life” from 2023 outlined twelve prerequisites for successful implementation: a clear vision, a robust strategy, prioritized implementation plans, a management system, committed employees, communication, champions, effective leadership, training, practical tools, visible successes, and perseverance. These requirements still apply. Under today’s conditions, however, an additional skill has come to the forefront: continuously monitoring one’s own strategic assumptions, openly questioning them, and revising them in a timely manner.
FIVE KEY AREAS FOR A SUSTAINABLE STRATEGY:
- Review assumptions regularly: What market, technology, and cost assumptions underpin our planning? Instead of working with a single target figure, we should define ranges and relevant leading indicators.
- Sharpen our positioning: Where do we want to win, and what are we consciously choosing to forgo? Resources should be concentrated on a few areas with genuine potential for differentiation.
- Exploring Options: Which decisions are difficult to reverse? Investments can be phased and linked to clear criteria for expansion, adaptation, or termination.
- Targeted skill development: Which competencies need to be built up internally, supplemented through partnerships, or phased out in the future? Training and the reallocation of resources are integral parts of the strategy.
- Making Implementation Manageable: How can we recognize early on that the course we’ve set is no longer viable? This requires specific trigger points, clear lines of responsibility, and decisions agreed upon in advance.
From Strategic Retreat to Ongoing Leadership Process
The strategy retreat in the second half of the year remains important, but it must not be the only forum for strategic work. Strategy must be translated into an ongoing leadership process. This includes regular reviews of assumptions, a few relevant leading indicators, a binding decision-making cycle, and a willingness to actually reallocate resources.
Three consequences are particularly important:
- Scenarios must trigger decisions. A scenario is only useful if it is clear which action is taken in response to which signal. What do we do if a core market shrinks by double digits? Which investments are accelerated, and which are halted? Which capacity is kept flexible?
- Prioritization also means making sacrifices. In times of strain, additional programs tend to spring up quickly. This overwhelms the organization. A good strategy limits the number of initiatives, discontinues projects that do not make a sufficient contribution, and safeguards the few critical transformation projects.
- Implementation requires translation. Employees can only support a strategy if they understand why decisions were made, what will change in their area, and what support they will receive. Communication, leadership, and training are not merely supporting measures; they are part of the strategy’s value creation.
Strategy Enables Action
No one can reliably predict today how quickly technology, trade relations, regulation, customer preferences, and business models will evolve over the next five years. However, companies can decide what position they want to achieve, what capabilities they need to get there, and how they will respond to various developments.
The key strategic challenge for 2027 and beyond is therefore not, “What will happen?” but rather, “What decisions do we need to make today so that we can remain capable of acting and remaining competitive regardless of how things unfold?”
A strategy does not become better simply because its slides become more and more detailed. It succeeds when its assumptions are transparent, its priorities actually guide resource allocation, and its implementation is visible in day-to-day operations. This is precisely the role of leadership: to provide direction, enable decision-making, and keep the organization moving forward even when the target range remains stable but the path to it must be redefined.
We bring your strategy to life
You can find even more on the topic of strategy and change management in our e-paper “Successfully Shaping Change—Strategies for Sustainable Transformation”